Arizona's abortion law repeal comes as independents trust Biden more on issue

The same poll showed that Biden has ground to make up. Respondents said they would choose Trump over him by 7 percentage points, and 65% said the state’s economy was going off the wrong track.

The perception underscores the drawbacks of the state’s post-pandemic boom. The number of people who moved there since 2020 – nearly 200,000 to the Phoenix metro alone – dwarfs Biden’s margin of victory of just 10,457 votes.

The desert drew the interest of advanced manufacturing firms looking for plentiful and affordable land near large cities, setting the stage for new employment. Now, Arizona has more manufacturing jobs than before the pandemic. Companies can’t fill posts fast enough. And while business groups are trying to train local people for positions related to chip manufacturing, workers recruited from elsewhere are finding it tough to find affordable homes.

Arizona “just got behind” in building different forms of housing, said Sharon Harper, chief executive officer of commercial real estate firm Plaza Companies. “So that’s got to really ramp up. We need it all.”

Another potential wrinkle for Biden in Arizona: Of the seven swing states, it’s home to the most new Republicans.

For Republicans, tapping discontent over migrant crossings is a key strategy. Here, however, Arizonans defy easy categorization.

It was one of Arizona’s own – independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema – who helped lead the bipartisan U.S. Senate bill that addressed the crisis. Arizona business and civic leaders ranging in political leanings were enthusiastic about it. But it collapsed under pressure from Trump, who said he didn’t want to give Biden a victory.

So far, Democrats have been better organized compared to Republicans, said Mike Noble, a nonpartisan political researcher and pollster in Phoenix. Trump, mired in unprecedented legal troubles, canceled a January Phoenix trip for a court appearance and has yet to visit Arizona this year.

“Biden was just out here, they’ve been rolling out coalitions, putting machinery in place, whereas Republicans are behind the eight ball,” Noble said.

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(With assistance from Alexandre Tanzi, Gregory Korte, Kelsey Butler and Allan James Vestal.)